Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.008616 0.009714 0.010917 0.012337 0.013970 0.015794 0.017991
2024-12-22 0.006596 0.008009 0.009692 0.011860 0.014593 0.017951 0.022424
2024-12-29 0.005641 0.007191 0.009144 0.011809 0.015391 0.020092 0.026821
2025-01-05 0.005196 0.006896 0.009141 0.012361 0.016931 0.023287 0.032978
2025-01-12 0.004534 0.006212 0.008509 0.011939 0.017024 0.024438 0.036352
2025-01-19 0.004036 0.005685 0.008016 0.011622 0.017183 0.025643 0.039906
2025-01-26 0.003709 0.005361 0.007768 0.011616 0.017774 0.027534 0.044771
2025-02-02 0.003566 0.005287 0.007871 0.012140 0.019236 0.030959 0.052677
2025-02-09 0.003308 0.005011 0.007633 0.012090 0.019739 0.032841 0.058153
2025-02-16 0.003122 0.004827 0.007517 0.012218 0.020545 0.035324 0.065093
2025-02-23 0.002897 0.004561 0.007243 0.012044 0.020791 0.036816 0.070337
2025-03-02 0.002754 0.004416 0.007153 0.012176 0.021593 0.039422 0.078214
2025-03-09 0.002578 0.004209 0.006955 0.012118 0.022084 0.041594 0.085788
2025-03-16 0.002346 0.003891 0.006539 0.011628 0.021700 0.042003 0.089662
2025-03-23 0.002208 0.003722 0.006371 0.011580 0.022175 0.044223 0.098049
2025-03-30 0.002167 0.003722 0.006504 0.012120 0.023907 0.049355 0.114388
2025-04-06 0.002000 0.003480 0.006172 0.011707 0.023587 0.049925 0.119505
2025-04-13 0.001861 0.003282 0.005904 0.011397 0.023452 0.050892 0.125844
2025-04-20 0.001772 0.003168 0.005790 0.011391 0.023985 0.053495 0.137132
2025-04-27 0.001749 0.003179 0.005916 0.011904 0.025758 0.059363 0.158928
2025-05-04 0.001666 0.003066 0.005788 0.011854 0.026210 0.062003 0.171904
2025-05-11 0.001607 0.002996 0.005742 0.011980 0.027098 0.065904 0.189683
2025-05-18 0.001523 0.002872 0.005573 0.011810 0.027234 0.067821 0.201588